Troy, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

775
FXUS64 KBMX 082338
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 415 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

 - A level 2 out of 5 chance for strong to severe storms on
   Monday as additional clusters of showers and storms develops to
   the west/northwest and moves across Central Alabama. Damaging
   straight-line winds will be the main hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025

The showers and storms hung around a little longer this afternoon
and has kept temperatures from warming out if control. The
boundary associated with this activity has pushed south of the
area. With the lack of excess heating and a fairly more stable
environment, we are going to go ahead and pull the severe weather
for the rest of the afternoon. While there are still some chances
for showers and storms through the evening, it appears too low to
continue to mention.

It will be interesting to see the 00z models once they come in
tonight, right now the CAMs have several different time lines with
the waves on Monday. However they are showing the same trends with
two waves of activity.

16

Previous short-term discussion:
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1127 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025

Tonight, the boundary should continue to move to the south, with
a few light showers possible in the far south overnight. With high
low level moisture and cooler temps overnight, fog development is
possible in many areas.

By sunrise, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
across the area, with another line of storms moving into the area
from the west and southwest by mid morning. This line will move
west to east through the morning and the afternoon, with
additional showers and thunderstorms developing behind the initial
line.

Instabilities will be several thousand, high LI values, PW values
max, and shear around 40 kts at least. Damaging winds and large
hail are possible with any activity on Monday. And with a
southerly component to the low level winds, with a westerly
direction at the mid levels, a few storms could rotate with a
tornado possible. This threat is very low, but with the shear
present, this mention must be included.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025

A cold front will be in the process of passing through the area at
the start of the extended forecast period with broad longwave
troughing over the Eastern CONUS. This will usher in a drier airmass
which should help to lower our rain chances for at least a couple of
days depending on how far south the dry air progresses. Highest
thunderstorm chances look to focus across the Gulf Coast region on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will begin warming back into the
lower 90s by Thursday as low-level flow shifts back to the southwest
in response to a deepening trough axis over the Southern Plains.
This will bring deeper moisture content back into Central Alabama
and will likely result in increased rain chances again for the
second half of the week with scattered to numerous showers and
storms expected on Thursday and Friday, especially during the
afternoon. The pattern still appears rather chaotic by the end of
the week, so details will be difficult to track this far ahead, but
we may see some severe risks materialize during this time as well. A
subtropical ridge may begin to strengthen over the eastern Gulf by
the weekend as the mid-level trough over the ArkLaTex makes little
eastward progress, placing Central Alabama within a zone of
continued unsettled weather this weekend.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025

Looks like the boundary has moved south of the TAF sites this
evening. The southward progression will continua through 6z and
then begin to return north. A round of showers and storms will
will develop along this boundary and slide into the southwestern
sections by sunrise. Before that though we will likely see some
patchy fog and/or low clouds across the area. Included IFR
conditions at most sites. By 11 or 12z the first round of
activity should be moving into MGM and then the rest of the area
between 13 and 15z. This system slides east and then the second
wave moves through in the afternoon/evening. There are some
differences in the overall time, so went with a PROB30 after 21z,
but it could be after 00z working into the northern TAF sites and
then sliding southeast. Hopefully will have more details on it
with the 6z TAFs, with the 00z model runs.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Humid conditions with a couple more rounds of storms are expected
through tomorrow before a cold front moves through the area and
brings drier air on Tuesday. Min RH will remain well above
critical thresholds even after the frontal passage, and the
saturated conditions will limit any fire weather concerns for the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  84  63  84 /  10  70  60  20
Anniston    68  82  66  83 /  10  80  70  30
Birmingham  68  81  66  84 /  10  80  60  30
Tuscaloosa  69  83  67  85 /  20  80  50  30
Calera      69  82  67  84 /  20  80  60  40
Auburn      69  82  68  83 /  30  80  80  60
Montgomery  70  85  68  84 /  50  80  80  70
Troy        69  87  67  84 /  60  80  80  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...16